Lehman Center for Transportation Research at Florida International University

Comparing Short-Term Traffic Projections with Traffic Counts The JUATS 2015 Model

  • Sponsor: Florida Department of Transportation
  • Contact: Dr. Fang Zhao, 305-348-3821, zhaof@fiu.edu

  • Many transportation planner and engineers are looking at ways to improve the forecasting capability of their travel models. Household surveys, transit surveys, geographical based networks and parcel level socioeconomic data are some of the new things being tried in Florida. However, what is the relative importance of the various approaches? Which give the best return of investment in model improvement? Are improvements in data collection strategies more important than geographically rectifying the network? In order to answer these questions, it is important to isolate each variable and determine what improvements result form correcting errors in each variable.

    Most prior efforts to evaluate future from a travel demand modeling process involved a comparison of a previous travel forecast to what was actually observed during the forecast year. This research project will compare the actual traffic counts for year 2000 against the projected traffic volumes from the 2000 Existing-Plus-Committed network. The objective of the research is to determine how accurately the JUATS 2000 network was able to predict the traffic patterns for year 2000. The difference between this study and previous ones lies in the attempt to further investigate the sources of errors to determine the relative importance of each and their contributions to the errors.